Black Friday: Do This To Avoid Losing Money This Year

Hey Founder,

Every Q4 I ask founders the same question:

"Did Black Friday actually make you more profitable… or did you just chase vanity (revenue or ROAS) metrics that weren’t actually profitable?"

Most brands don’t know the answer. They’re staring at revenue screenshots, celebrating record sales — without looking at what actually matters: margin, new customer acquisition, and long-term impact.

Here’s the process I recommend for reviewing BFCM performance properly, so you can learn the right lessons before planning this year’s offer strategy.

1. Revenue & Margin Performance

Start with the basics, but dig deeper:

• Total revenue vs. target — did you hit goals?

• Revenue split — full price vs discounted.

• AOV — did discounting actually increase basket size?

• Order volume — was growth driven by more orders, or bigger baskets?

• Gross margin — how did margins compare to a “normal” month?

• Contribution margin (or GPLA) — after subtracting ad spend, shipping, discounts what was left over as true profit.

👉 Don’t fall into the trap of celebrating “record revenue” if contribution margin was lower than October.

2. Ad Performance

Black Friday ads can look amazing in-platform — but often tell a different story in Shopify.

• Spend - total dollars in.

• ROAS / MER - blended revenue ÷ total ad spend.

• Incrementality - were you acquiring new customers, or just discounting existing loyal ones?

• Creative learnings - which hooks, formats, and offers cut through?

• Attribution gap - compare Meta/Google ROAS to Shopify revenue.

• Contribution Margin (after ad spend) - was it higher than other months? Was the increase justified when you look at months following?

3. Post-Sale Revenue Impact

Don’t just look at November in isolation.

• Pull-forward effect — did December or January dip so much that they cancel out the sale revenue?

• Cannibalisation — how many November buyers would have purchased anyway at full price if you hadn’t run a discounts?

• Stock-outs — did BFCM promos leave you unable to sell bestsellers in December?

4. Cohort Analysis

This is where the real insights live.

• New vs returning customers — what % of BFCM buyers were first-timers?

• Retention — how many of those new customers repurchased in 90/180 days?

• Discount sensitivity — do they only shop on sale, or at full price later?

• LTV — compare BFCM-acquired cohorts to “normal month” cohorts.

👉 A Simple Process You Can Run

1. Pull your BFCM cohort into Shopify/analytics (filter: first order date during Black Friday period).

2. Track repurchase rates and LTV for 30/60/90/180 days.

3. Compare to non-BFCM cohorts.

4. Map ad campaign performance against cohort outcomes, not just weekend ROAS.

5. Use the findings to set this year’s objectives: profit, new customer growth, retention, or brand awareness.
   

   If BFCM customers churn faster, or only come back when you discount, you may not be acquiring the right type of customer

5. Insights to Inform This Year

Once you’ve run the numbers, translate them into next year’s plan:

• Offer strategy — if margin erosion was high, try bundles, gift-with-purchase, or discounting select SKUs instead of sitewide.

• Ad budget allocation — put more spend behind campaigns that acquired high-LTV customers.

• Timing — did early access or extended promos work? Or did they just dilute urgency?

• Retention plan — build flows specifically for BFCM cohorts to encourage full-price reorders.

• Stock planning — avoid running out of bestsellers too early or being left with slow movers.

Black Friday is only a “win” if it sets you up for sustainable growth — not just a one-off spike.

So before you start planning this year’s offer, take the time to measure what really happened last year. You might be surprised by what you find.

x

Jessie

ps. we spend Sept and October prepping our clients for a great Q4 - if you want extra help to make the most of the season, then it might be a great time to join my coaching programme - www.ecommrockets.com