How To Scale Ad Spend Without Losing Money

Hey Founder,

It’s that time of year when you hit the accelerator on your ad account and if you do it right - make 3X or 4X back (or more) in revenue.

But scaling ad spend is a tricky game—but when done right, it’s all fun and games, but if you start pumping spend in the wrong places, you can quickly stop being profitable.

If you’re working with an agency or media buyer, having a clear framework for how to scale can ensure everyone’s on the same page and every dollar spent leads to meaningful growth.

Here’s how I’d approach it if we were mapping out your Q4 strategy:

First things first: Incremental Revenue is the Goal

The purpose of Meta or Google campaigns isn’t just to drive platform-attributed revenue (ie those numbers you see in Ads Manager); it’s to grow your total store revenue. Shopify or your bank account are where you’ll see the true impact.

So, if you’re working with a $100k/month budget, every dollar spent should contribute to lifting your total sales—not just what Facebook or Google claims. If you increase ad spend by 20%, total revenue should grow by at least 20% or more.

If it doesn’t, it’s time to hit pause and dig into optimisation.

Get Comfortable Testing for Incrementality

Not all revenue growth is “real” growth. For example, throwing more ad dollars into the mix could just cannibalise your organic sales. That’s where incrementality testing comes in.

If you’re targeting multiple regions, consider a geo-split test: allocate additional spend to one region and keep another as a control. Watch closely—does the increase in spend lead to new revenue? If not, you’ve just saved yourself from pouring money into the wrong campaigns.

This type of testing is the backbone of confident scaling, and it’s something to discuss with your agency or media buyer before you start ramping up spend.

A Framework for Scaling (Without Wasting Money)

Here’s the process I recommend:

1. Identify your best performers
   Start by pinpointing the campaigns, markets, or ad sets that show the strongest correlation between spend and total revenue growth. These are your “scale candidates.”

2. Incremental increases
   Once you’ve found what works, start scaling up in small steps—10-20% increases at a time. So, if you’re spending $10k on a campaign, try bumping it up to $12k and see if revenue rises in lockstep.

3. Evaluate and adjust
   If revenue growth matches or exceeds the increase in spend, keep scaling. If it doesn’t, take a step back and rework your targeting, creative, or funnel. Scaling isn’t about “spend more, hope for the best”—it’s about steady, data-driven growth.

Keep Everyone Aligned: The Role of Your Agency or Media Buyer

The agency or buyer managing your campaigns should focus on total business impact, not just ad platform metrics like ROAS or CPA. They need to:

• Show you the correlation between ad spend and Shopify revenue, not just what’s tracked in-platform.

• Proactively flag when campaigns hit diminishing returns—and suggest adjustments rather than just pushing for more budget.

For example, if you’re spending $100k/month and it’s working beautifully, but an extra $10k spend doesn’t deliver $20k+ in revenue, it’s their job to hit the brakes and rethink.

Open communication is key here. If your media buyer doesn’t have a clear idea of your north star, then they will end up floundering or wasting your money.

Scaling ad spend isn’t about chasing vanity metrics. It’s about ensuring every dollar you spend creates real, measurable growth.

With the right framework—and a collaborative partnership with your agency or ads manager —you can scale confidently and profitably.

Good luck with Peak Season!

Jessie

ps.

Need help?

I’d love to jump on call to give you feedback on your set up - my calendar is open!